The Canadian GP guarantees to be an unpredictable occasion. It’s normally filled with uncertainties attributable to altering climate circumstances all through the weekend. This yr, nonetheless, regardless of the forecasts remaining pretty secure thus far and anticipated to remain that manner tomorrow, the very mushy tire nomination on a low-grip and customarily soiled observe will increase the chance of graining.
A phenomenon that affected all the highest groups throughout Friday’s race tempo simulations. Probably the most affected was Ferrari, which may solely run with Lewis Hamilton attributable to Charles Leclerc’s absence following his FP1 crash. Earlier than sharing our ideas, let’s overview the recommendation Pirelli gave to the groups after qualifying.
Pirelli’s recommendation – Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – 70 laps
The primary difficulty is certainly graining and the usage of C4 and C5 compounds in race mode. Mario Isola, Pirelli motorsport director, was very clear and concise: “Extending the 2025 compound vary is creating a wide range of approaches amongst groups and drivers in tire utilization all through the weekend, which can replicate on the race. From a technique perspective, we predict a two-stop stays probably the most believable possibility, favoring Medium and Onerous tires. The one-stop technique is theoretically legitimate however unlikely to repay, contemplating overtaking is feasible right here and the time misplaced within the pit lane for tire modifications is kind of restricted (round 18 seconds),” based on the assertion from the Pirelli workforce.
Graining and quick stops may open the door to a three-stop situation
It’s no secret that the C6 will not be probably the most appropriate tire for the race. The brand new Pirelli compound, on this kind of circuit—as seen already at Imola—doesn’t make a distinction. In qualifying it’s typically even ignored and can doubtless be much more so in the course of the race.
The GP opens as much as varied methods, largely relying on the remaining tire units out there to the drivers. We agree with Pirelli that the quickest technique, at the least on paper, will probably be a two-stop plan like Medium-Medium-Onerous or Onerous-Onerous-Medium. It have to be famous that the C5, the yellow compound this yr, continues to be very mushy and, as seen already on Friday (race tempo information), suffers rather a lot from graining.
If drivers can handle stints of about 20 laps on the C5, then the M-M-H technique turns into attainable; in any other case, if degradation is excessive and an early pit cease is important, they’ll swap to M-H-H or, in the event that they don’t have two units of C4, change plans in the direction of a three-stop technique doubtless involving the Delicate tire.
Utilizing the Delicate C6, in our opinion, will probably be extra a matter of necessity (attributable to shortages of different compounds) reasonably than efficiency. We imagine that these beginning on Delicate have both already dedicated to a three-stop or wish to attempt to achieve a bonus with an early undercut, hoping to choose up positions whereas operating on Onerous tires in clear air. These beginning on Delicate will doubtless go S-H-H or three stops.
If compelled to make use of Delicate, we advocate utilizing it within the last stint. The extra rubbered-in observe will assist handle graining higher. Given qualifying efficiency, nonetheless, we don’t imagine the C6 can supply a constant efficiency benefit over the C5. Once more, its use will probably be extra out of necessity.
For these with a scarcity of Medium and Onerous tires—just one set of every out there—a two-stop technique together with all three compounds is feasible. Even in that case, the perfect strategy can be to make use of Delicate within the final part of the race.
If graining is excessive, we may see two situations the place each undercuts and overcuts may very well be very efficient. Pitting early permits gaining observe place over drivers on worn tires initially, however these pitting late may achieve a bonus over those that modified tires too early.
Abstract
The 2-stop technique is on paper the best choice, however because the pit cease time is pretty quick (18 seconds), three stops may very well be a really attention-grabbing various, particularly if graining is extreme. In Canada, potential security vehicles should even be thought-about, as a Security Automotive deployment is at all times doubtless. The groups will should be adept at capitalizing on each alternative, particularly utilizing a free pit cease to realize a bonus.
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